Holiday Shopping Trends 2026: Why Behavior — Not Intent — Drives Opportunity for Marketers

Holiday shopping used to follow a predictable rhythm. In 2026, what people say they’ll do and what they actually do keep moving in different directions. Shoppers report anxiety about prices and tariffs, yet forecasters still expect U.S. holiday sales to grow 4% to 5.5% this season. For marketers, agencies and media buyers, that gap is where the opportunity lies. The holiday shopping trends that matter most aren’t found in surveys; they show up in behavior.

Here’s what Lotame’s behavioral data reveals about where demand is really growing this season, and how to act on it.

The 2026 Holiday Outlook: What the Forecasts Say

Consumers keep telling pollsters they’re worried about prices. Their spending tells a different story. U.S. holiday sales topped $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, growing 4.1% year over year (NRF), and forecasters expect another strong season in 2026:

• Deloitte projects holiday retail sales of $1.70 to $1.71 trillion (November through January), up 4.0% to 4.8%, with e-commerce up 7.5% to 8.4%.
• Bain & Company forecasts 4.5% growth, with non-store sales up about 9% and in-store up about 2.5%. More than 90% of shoppers plan to shop Black Friday, Cyber Monday or another major sales event.
• Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts 5.5% growth from November 1 to December 24, the strongest in four years, with online sales up 11%.

One calendar shift to plan around: Cyber Monday falls on November 30 this year, so both peak shopping days land in November.

What’s Behind the Shift: When Intent Doesn’t Match Action 

In recent months, many consumers—particularly Millennials—have been talking about cutting back, tightening budgets, and buying less. And yet, actual holiday spending plans tell a different story. According to recent data, the average planned holiday spend among Millennials has jumped 30% year-over-year, reaching $896, the highest of any generation. 

This contrast between sentiment and behavior highlights a key truth: emotions and public statements often reflect uncertainty — but real purchasing decisions reveal underlying opportunity. 

For marketers, that means relying on surveys and polls alone isn’t enough. To uncover where demand is growing, you need to look at behavioral data. 

Where Real Demand Is Emerging: Key Categories to Watch in 2026

Behavioral signals from Lotame Insights point to strong demand in categories that rarely top shoppers’ stated wish lists (Source: Lotame Insights, US Q4 Holiday Shoppers):

• Pets. Among holiday travelers, 94% are in-market for pet supplies (index 142), with dog supplies (167) and cat supplies (162) both over-indexing. It’s the highest-reach theme across all three audiences studied.
• Home upgrades. 72% of Travelers are in-market for household appliances (175), and DIY (205) and home renovation (190) index at roughly 2x.
• Baking and home cooking. Nearly 9 in 10 Activity Planners are interested in baking (155, 87%), and home cooks index at 175.
• Toys and tech. Among Gift Givers, toys reach 66% (196) and tablets 57% (219).
• Premium beauty. Gift Givers are more than 2x more likely to buy from Sephora (237), Lancôme (229) and DermStore (230).

Last year’s signals in women’s fashion, home design and sustainable goods still matter, but these 2026 categories show where holiday budgets are actually going.

The Rise of AI as the New Discovery Engine 

One of the most significant changes this season? The early shopping journey has shifted — increasingly — to AI-powered tools. 

• Among Millennials and Gen Z, a growing share are turning to platforms like ChatGPT and Copilot for ideas, travel planning, virtual try-ons, and early product research. 
• Specifically, data shows 37% of Millennials and an astonishing 93% of Gen Z using AI tools for inspiration and decision-making. 

These AI-driven interactions aren’t passive — they shape preferences long before a traditional ad ever appears. 

For marketers, that means: visibility in AI-powered discovery channels is no longer optional — it’s essential. 

Value Signals & Price Sensitivity: The New Holiday Shopping Lens 

Economic pressures — including tariffs and inflation — have changed how many consumers think about value. Loud talk of “saving money” doesn’t always translate into frugality; instead, it’s pushing shoppers toward deliberate, value-minded research. 

Younger generations, in particular, are scrutinizing the following: 

• Product origins 
• Material quality 
• Value per dollar spent 

As a result, new shopper segments are emerging: 

The clearest example of value-seeking behavior comes from an unexpected place: wealthy shoppers. Half of holiday Gift Givers rank high on wealth (Wealth IQ index 333, 50%), yet they’re more than 2x more likely than average to shop at Nordstrom Rack (255), T.J. Maxx (238), Costco (233) and Saks OFF 5TH (232). (Source: Lotame Insights, US Q4 Holiday Shoppers) They’re also about 3x more likely to buy on Cyber Monday (301) and Black Friday (291).

High income doesn’t translate into full-price behavior. For marketers, that means “premium for less” messaging beats both luxury framing and bargain-bin discounting.

For marketers, this offers a prime opportunity: building custom audiences that combine demographics with emerging behavioral and value-driven signals. 

Same Interest, Different Behavior: Why Segments Need Behavioral Data

Two audiences can share an interest and still act on it in completely different ways. Lotame Insights found sharp contrasts between holiday audiences (Source: Lotame Insights, US Q4 Holiday Shoppers):

• Food: Activity Planners cook. Baking reaches 87% of them and barbecue and grilling indexes at 183. Travelers watch. Food Network CTV reaches 74% of them (index 144).
• Sport: Activity Planners play. Team sports reach 81% and racquet sports index at 177. Travelers watch. College football CTV indexes at 169 and motorsports at 172.
• Tech: Gift Givers buy devices (tablets 219, B&H Photo Video 234). Activity Planners play games (PC gamers 153, PlayStation 161).

An interest-based segment called “food lovers” or “sports fans” would lump these people together. Behavioral data separates them, and that changes everything from channel choice (grocery retail media vs. CTV) to creative (activity-led vs. entertainment-led).

Omnichannel Is No Longer a Debate — It’s a Given 

Forget online vs. in‑store. In 2026, the holiday shopping journey is omnichannel by default. 

Our data shows that the majority of the biggest spenders — Millennials — plan to shop both online and in stores: roughly 92% online, 91% in-store. Gen Z and Gen X show similar patterns. 

This reveals a crucial insight: It’s not about choosing channels — it’s about optimizing the transition between channels. The classic “scroll-to-tap-to-pickup” cycle has become standard. 

For brands and media buyers, that means: dashboards, attribution models, and customer journeys need to capture the full lifecycle — from online discovery, to in-store experience, to final purchase. 

What This Means for Marketers Right Now  

Holiday 2026 reinforces a core truth: Intent is directional. Behavior is actionable. When you combine what people say with what they actually do — rising budgets, AI-driven discovery, tariff-influenced value assessment, and evolving category interest — four clear patterns emerge: 

• Surging demand in categories people said they’d cut back on — like women’s fashion, home design, and travel research. 
• AI-led early discovery — more shopping journeys begin with AI tools rather than traditional search or ads. 
• Heightened value sensitivity — shoppers are scrutinizing price, origin, and quality like never before. 
• Omnichannel shopping as the new norm — seamless movement between digital and physical channels is expected. 

For agencies and media buyers, these trends don’t just rewrite the holiday playbook. They demand a new strategic approach — one rooted in real behavior, not assumptions. 

How to Take Action — Marketer Checklist 

1. Prioritize behavioral insights over stated intent. Use real shopping and browsing data (not just surveys) to identify demand signals. 
2. Ensure your brand is visible across AI-powered discovery tools — because that’s where consumer journeys begin. 
3.  Segment audiences based on value sensitivity and shopping behavior, not just demographics or self‑reported budgets. 
4. Optimize for omnichannel attribution and user journey mapping — from first online click, through in-store experience, to final purchase. 
5. Align media buys and creative strategies with actual category growth, even if consumer sentiment suggests otherwise. 

👉 Want to go deeper? Explore Lotame’s holiday audience segments to see how custom behavioral data can help you reach value-seekers, AI-first shoppers, luxury bargain hunters, and more — all based on real 2026 trends. 

FAQs

The Bottom Line 

This holiday season belongs to the brands that pay attention to what consumers do, not just what they say. Growth isn’t hiding in sentiment — it’s hiding in behavior. 

If you want to tap into these insights now and stay ahead of shifting trends, check out the latest data from Lotame for deeper audience analytics and real‑time behavioral signals. 

Ready to see where demand is really growing this season? Visit our insights hub at Lotame to get the data that drives smarter campaigns.