Holiday Shopping Trends 2025: Why Behavior — Not Intent — Drives Opportunity for Marketers

Holiday shopping used to follow a predictable rhythm. But in 2025, what people say they’ll do and what they actually do are moving in very different directions. For marketers, agencies, and media buyers, this shift matters — a lot. 

Stated intent is noisy. Real behavior is insight. And the brands that win this season will be the ones paying attention to what people do, not just what they say. 

What’s Behind the Shift: When Intent Doesn’t Match Action 

In recent months, many consumers—particularly Millennials—have been talking about cutting back, tightening budgets, and buying less. And yet, actual holiday spending plans tell a different story. According to recent data, the average planned holiday spend among Millennials has jumped 30% year-over-year, reaching $896, the highest of any generation. 

This contrast between sentiment and behavior highlights a key truth: emotions and public statements often reflect uncertainty — but real purchasing decisions reveal underlying opportunity. 

For marketers, that means relying on surveys and polls alone isn’t enough. To uncover where demand is growing, you need to look at behavioral data. 

Where Real Demand Is Emerging: Key Categories to Watch 

Behavioral signals pulled from the Lotame Data Exchange point towards strong growth in categories that many consumers say they intend to skip. In particular: 

• Women’s fashion — shoppers are browsing and buying at nearly twice the rate of the general population. 
• Home design and decor — interest in remodeling, redecorating, and home upgrades is surging. 
• Green vehicles and sustainable goods — environmentally conscious purchases are on the rise. 

If marketers base their 2025 holiday strategies only on expressed intent, they risk missing these high-growth opportunities. 

The Rise of AI as the New Discovery Engine 

One of the most significant changes this season? The early shopping journey has shifted — increasingly — to AI-powered tools. 

• Among Millennials and Gen Z, a growing share are turning to platforms like ChatGPT and Copilot for ideas, travel planning, virtual try-ons, and early product research. 
• Specifically, data shows 37% of Millennials and an astonishing 93% of Gen Z using AI tools for inspiration and decision-making. 

These AI-driven interactions aren’t passive — they shape preferences long before a traditional ad ever appears. 

For marketers, that means: visibility in AI-powered discovery channels is no longer optional — it’s essential. 

Value Signals & Price Sensitivity: The New Holiday Shopping Lens 

Economic pressures — including tariffs and inflation — have changed how many consumers think about value. Loud talk of “saving money” doesn’t always translate into frugality; instead, it’s pushing shoppers toward deliberate, value-minded research. 

Younger generations, in particular, are scrutinizing the following: 

• Product origins 
• Material quality 
• Value per dollar spent 

As a result, new shopper segments are emerging: 

• Value‑focused researchers digging deep for the best deals. 
• Category‑specific deal seekers (e.g., fashion or home décor). 
• Luxury bargain –hunters — consumers hunting quality at accessible prices, often on curated resale or discount platforms. 

For marketers, this offers a prime opportunity: building custom audiences that combine demographics with emerging behavioral and value-driven signals. 

Omnichannel Is No Longer a Debate — It’s a Given 

Forget online vs. in‑store. In 2025, the holiday shopping journey is omnichannel by default. 

Our data shows that the majority of the biggest spenders — Millennials — plan to shop both online and in stores: roughly 92% online, 91% in-store. Gen Z and Gen X show similar patterns. 

This reveals a crucial insight: It’s not about choosing channels — it’s about optimizing the transition between channels. The classic “scroll-to-tap-to-pickup” cycle has become standard. 

For brands and media buyers, that means: dashboards, attribution models, and customer journeys need to capture the full lifecycle — from online discovery, to in-store experience, to final purchase. 

What This Means for Marketers Right Now  

Holiday 2025 reinforces a core truth: Intent is directional. Behavior is actionable. When you combine what people say with what they actually do — rising budgets, AI-driven discovery, tariff-influenced value assessment, and evolving category interest — four clear patterns emerge: 

• Surging demand in categories people said they’d cut back on — like women’s fashion, home design, and travel research. 
• AI-led early discovery — more shopping journeys begin with AI tools rather than traditional search or ads. 
• Heightened value sensitivity — shoppers are scrutinizing price, origin, and quality like never before. 
• Omnichannel shopping as the new norm — seamless movement between digital and physical channels is expected. 

For agencies and media buyers, these trends don’t just rewrite the holiday playbook. They demand a new strategic approach — one rooted in real behavior, not assumptions. 

How to Take Action — Marketer Checklist 

1. Prioritize behavioral insights over stated intent. Use real shopping and browsing data (not just surveys) to identify demand signals. 
2. Ensure your brand is visible across AI-powered discovery tools — because that’s where consumer journeys begin. 
3.  Segment audiences based on value sensitivity and shopping behavior, not just demographics or self‑reported budgets. 
4. Optimize for omnichannel attribution and user journey mapping — from first online click, through in-store experience, to final purchase. 
5. Align media buys and creative strategies with actual category growth, even if consumer sentiment suggests otherwise. 

👉 Want to go deeper? Explore Lotame’s holiday audience segments to see how custom behavioral data can help you reach value-seekers, AI-first shoppers, luxury bargain hunters, and more — all based on real 2025 trends. 

The Bottom Line 

This holiday season belongs to the brands that pay attention to what consumers do, not just what they say. Growth isn’t hiding in sentiment — it’s hiding in behavior. 

If you want to tap into these insights now and stay ahead of shifting trends, check out the latest data from Lotame for deeper audience analytics and real‑time behavioral signals. 

Ready to see where demand is really growing this season? Visit our insights hub at Lotame to get the data that drives smarter campaigns.